INFROMTHECOLD?

Union leader George Henderson is not a habitual gambling man. But he is prepared to invest a pound or two on Labour to win tomorrow's General Election.

Construction's longest serving national trade union leader is hoping that, with Labour in power, the operative side of the industry will at least get a hearing in the corridors of power - even if Tony Blair's brand of politics is not as red-blooded as Henderson might wish.

"The crucial thing I would expect from an incoming Labour Government is a return to some fairness and equity," comments the TGWU national secretary. "I can now see the return of a listening Government."

That being said, union expectations of a prospective Labour Government are limited. It would remain tied to current public spending budgets. Firm policy commitments are in short supply. Undertakings to sign the European Social Chapter and introduce a minimum wage are considered likely to have a minimum impact on construction.

The past 18 years of Conservative rule have not been kind to the trade unions. Government has not been listening to them. They have been shut out of Downing Street and legislation has curbed their powers. Structural changes in the industry, including the mushroom growth of so-called self-employment, have dramatically reduced union membership (see panel).

For individual contractors, the past couple of decades have meant wild fluctuations in their fortunes. A runaway boom at the end of the 1980s was swiftly followed by the worst slump in 50 years. Various sectors have seen their total workload rise and fall by up to a third in as little as two years.

Union attitudes have meanwhile changed out of all recognition over the past 18 years. They claim they were embracing a "new realism" well before the term New Labour was coined.

Part of that realism has been to cast aside confrontational "them and us" attitudes. And the rhetoric of nationalisation now scarcely finds even a ritual place on the union conference agenda. Instead, the key word now for the unions is partnership.

The European Union is now seen as a benign influence in the union head offices with leaders positively advocating a Continental approach to employer-employee relations. Indeed, the average national union official nowadays tends to spend more time in Brussels than in such traditional meeting places as Blackpool and Brighton.

"Of course, partnership can be just an empty slogan," a senior union official confesses. "By the same token it can mean something very positive, such as co-operation between operatives and employers to have sensible dialogue with Government.

"It can also mean a joint drive to increase training and the introduction of a new and realistic national collective agreement. That would mean a new industrial relations climate."

George Brumwell, general secretary of Ucatt, declares: "We are very much stressing this theme of partnership. What Tony Blair and other Labour leaders constantly ask us is whether the employers are ready to go along with this approach.

"A Labour Government is not going to have a big pot of money to throw at the industry. So I do not think that it would take the same approach to getting the industry moving as in the past. It will be much more flexible in its approach."

At the same time, Brumwell says he does expect real dividends from Labour's projected Windfall Tax on public utilities. He hopes that this will help pay for a targeted 10,000 extra training places in construction.

In fact, the overall number of trainees on two to three year construction courses has more than halved from 49,000 to 23,000 in the past six years. Registrations of apprentices in all the main traditional construction trades have slumped by up to 80 per cent since 1979. This, combined with the beginnings of an upturn in workload, has prompted warnings of a skills famine that may lead to severely inflationary wage growth.

Current evidence is that these market pressures have already led to an increase of at least 15 per cent in site rates of pay over the past year: steelfixers are to the fore with rates rising to œ110 a day.

In the short term, a change of Government is not going to change those market realities. And a fundamental restructuring of the building and civil engineering National Agreements, to bring them together and closer to actual site pay, will go ahead regardless of the election result.

Brumwell seeks here to sounds a reassuringly moderate note: "Everything is linked to training. There is certainly a need to attract a lot of people back into the industry," he says. "But this should not be on the basis of just buying them back with inflated pay packets. It is that kind of short-term approach that has bedevilled the industry in the past. Instead, what is wanted is real jobs with decent pay and decent conditions. The operatives do want a sense of longer term stability and confidence in their jobs.

"We are assuming a Labour victory. There is an air of expectancy. I believe a Labour victory will lead to a greater feeling of confidence in the industry."

George Henderson is similarly optimistic. "I never bet on general elections," he says. "But I might just have some money on this one. People do not vote Governments in. They vote them out. And I firmly believe they are going to vote the Tories out.

"I would anticipate a Labour Government bringing back a more reasonable level of investment in construction. Contractors have always admitted to me privately that the industry has traditionally fared better under a Labour administration. And Labour has been more inclined to strive to bring the industry a more steady and predictable workflow so that contractors can plan ahead and can have the confidence to invest in training."

Both Henderson and Brumwell anticipate a Labour Government putting a renewed emphasis on housing provision. "There is a need for 100,000 new homes a year," says Brumwell.

The Ucatt chief sees this as another area where a partnership between the public and private sectors can be achieved. Here, contractors may fear that a Labour Government would lead to a resurgence of local authority direct labour departments.

Brumwell comments: "The public and private sectors have co-existed for years. We are not opposed to competition. But we do expect competition to be on an equal basis. At the moment it is a free for all for the private sector, while the public sector is hamstrung with rules and regulations."

Allan Black, national officer at the GMB, points out that, since Labour is pledged to stick with the current Conservative spending plans, there is little prospect of a new administration significantly increasing construction investment in the next couple of years. Nor does Black see any dramatic shift in the industrial balance of power.

There are nonetheless two positive developments that he expects from Labour in the short term. First, he is encouraged by the promise to implement a phased release of local authority capital receipts. "This is not to be underestimated," he declares. Secondly, he sets some store by the undertaking to review the Private Finance Initiative and clear the PFI projects logjam.

Paul Corby, national officer at the AEEU, is at odds with his union colleagues on one thing. "Frankly, I have been expecting a Conservative victory all along," he says. "I sincerely hope that I am wrong. But I think it is a very volatile electorate."

Again, Corby returns to the theme of partnership between, for example, public and private sectors in transport infrastructure investment.

He wants to see urban regeneration higher up the political agenda, particularly through the use of regional development agencies. And he suggests that a radical review of all training bodies might help make them more responsive to industry's needs.

Union recognition has not proved a major problem for the mainstream sectors of construction. But Corby notes that Labour's pledge to reintroduce statutory rights to trade union recognition will prove important, especially in the offshore oil and gas sectors.

What the AEEU chief most fears in the post election period is the widely forecast hike in interest rates. "If we do get a Labour Government, I want to see an interest rate which does not inhibit investment," he declares. "My fear is that, if Kenneth Clarke continues as Chancellor of the Exchequer, he would be bound to do something to interest rates that would hold back investment."

So what if ultimately the bookmakers have got it all wrong and a Conservative Government is returned? "In that case, God help us all!" exclaims George Henderson. "The Tories have run riot over the past 18 years. They have undermined both unions and employer organisations. I do not think that people like myself will easily forget that."

George Brumwell is more philosophical. He concludes: "If the Tories do win, then so what. We have to live with whichever Government is elected. We have survived 18 years of Tory onslaught and we would continue to do so." n