One in three head for exit in 'record' output fall

One in three workers could leave the construction industry over the course of the recession, an industry expert has warned.

Construction economist Brian Green claimed the industry could shed 800,000 jobs, on the back of data from the Construction Products Association (CPA) which has forecast the worst ever contraction for the industry.

The CPA said this week that the sector would shrink a record 16% in 2009, even worse than the 12% that the CPA had originally forecast in April.

Prospects for 2010 also look grim. The CPA said it predicted a further fall of 5% compared to its previous forecast, which showed a fall of 3.4%.

And it warned that it does not now expect any significant increase in construction output until 2012.

Green said: "What concerns me more than the level of workload are the implications for the structure of the industry and more particularly the workforce.

"If the pattern of job shedding follows that of the 1990s we could see more than 800,000 jobs lost.

"That is more than one in three."

He said that a 15% fall in workload between 1989 Q2 and 1993 Q3 cost the industry 543,000 jobs, or 23%. But another 80,000 were lost during the recovery, taking the total construction workforce down from 2,392,000 to 1,771,000.

"If a 15% fall in workload leads to such devastation in the workforce, what would a 22% fall do, given that the upturn looks set to be very slow indeed?" Green asked.

CPA chief executive Michael Ankers said: "The only bright spots for the industry are the continued investment by government.

"Without this the industry would be in an even worse state.

"The real concern is that with the current state of the public finances, cuts in these government-funded schemes are almost inevitable following the election and it is very doubtful that there will be any significant recovery in private sector investment to fill the gap."