450,000 construction jobs could be lost by 2010

The Construction Skills Network (CSN) has revised its five year forecast for the second time in a year as fears of a sustained period of contraction persist.

The interim forecast now predicts the industry to contract by 12% in 2009, with a more marginal decline of 2% in 2010. Recovery is not forecast until 2011 and even then it is expected to be a slow return to modest levels of growth.

As a result the CSN predicts a decline in employment of 15% across 2009 and 2010, following a 1% drop in 2008. It says 450,000 industry jobs could be lost by 2010 if output does contract as predicted.

Any recovery from 2011 to 2014 would only create around 125,000 jobs.  

Sandra Lilley, CSN manager, said: “It is vital that the industry, wherever possible, focuses on retaining its skilled workforce. History demonstrates that our industry suffers skills shortages following a recession which hinders recovery and we must ensure that we proactively manage our way through this exceptionally difficult period.

“The number of skilled, qualified workers the industry is currently losing is very concerning, as it could be likely that many of them will be lost to the industry for ever."

ConstructionSkills chief executive Mark Farrar said the repair and maintenance sector could stimulate job creation.

He added: "The R&M sector is nearly twice as labour intensive as new work sectors of our industry and there are low barriers to entry when compared with the factors required to commence a large new infrastructure project.

“I would urge the government and the private sector to work together and find ways of generating activity in the repair and maintenance sector as a priority, as it will have an immediate impact in supporting the industry. This could be achieved by putting real momentum behind the sustainability agenda, which would create a knock-on benefit.”