This would represent a 40% drop on the peak year of 2007 and make 2009 a record peacetime low.

There are hints of hope in the figures with the starts figures rising. But if we look at the 12-monthly number we see that the accumulated starts over the past year are low, which does not bode well for an upturn in completions. Still, it is a start in the right direction.

But, is it me or do the forecasts for inflation reaching a mini-peak at about 3% in the early part of next year seem to be a little timid?

The reason I am a bit unsettled is that if expectations for inflation prove to be significantly on the lower side, this may lead to an upward pressure on mortgage rates and lending rates in general.

Basically, the results seem to suggest that by and large the effect on property transactions will be muted and will not cause a swell in the number of people looking to buy or sell their homes in the run up to 2010.

And when the tax threshold rises in the New Year estate agents in most regions don't think there will be a fall in transactions.

There is however quite a bit of regional variation in the views, which is not surprising given the spread in house prices regionally. London and the South East, for instance, unsurprisingly expect the least effect.

And in this regard we have not been let down by the price data research from the property websites Rightmove and FindaProperty. Both show the recent rally in asking prices reversing this month.

No doubt there will be many reading this as a sign of the start of the double dip in house prices. Well a double dip in the housing market is highly likely, but whether the drop in these indexes represents the crack from the starting gun or not is debateable.

This raises the total of employees shed over the previous 12 months to 177,000.

Meanwhile the figures also show that the chances of those being made redundant finding a new job within construction have dropped even further. Recorded vacancies fell to an average of just 8,000 over the three months to October.

Also the redundancy figures apply to just a section of those who earn a living from construction, as large numbers are self-employed in what is a highly-casualised industry. This can cloud the true extent of the damage being done to the construction workforce.

But the graphs clearly illustrate the plight of those employed in construction. And next month the statisticians will make their latest estimate of how many jobs there are within the industry.

That at least is the implication of some figures that caught my eye recently when I was looking though some data produced by the Council of Mortgage Lenders.

Consider this: the median income of a household taking out a mortgage to move is £47,328, or it was in August this year. In 2000 that figure would have been £29,000. This represents a 60% increase in the median earnings of home movers against a 33% increase in median earnings across the UK as a whole.

Graph 1 shows the rise in the median household income of first-time buyers taking out mortgages and of house movers along with the median and mean incomes across the UK as a whole.

Graph 2 shows the ratio of the median household income of both first-time buyers and house movers to the UK median income.

It would seem that the threshold of earnings to be able to move is rising. This in turn strongly suggests that the proportion of first-time buyers able to trade up is diminishing - and probably diminishing fast.

And these figures do not take account of the fact that cash buyers have become an increasingly large part of the home-mover market.

If the figures mean what I strongly suspect they do then current policy appears to be giving large numbers of desperate first-time homebuyers a leg up into a housing trap.

What is more, as the graphs suggest, this is a problem that seems to predate the credit crunch, so is not simply about access to finance.

The latest RICS housing market survey on the face of it provides every reason to suspect that better times lie ahead. This follows a raft of housing indexes showing house prices rising steadily for several months.

The RICS survey has for three months now seen more surveyors reporting rising prices than reporting prices falling and the majority has grown.

The survey shows that as well as rising prices there are increasing numbers of new instructions, sales are increasing, new buyer inquiries are rising and surveyors are increasingly confident of that prices will continue to increase.

But why, with everything appearing so rosy, is there so much concern among the experts that I talk to about the fragility of the market?

This was despite an overall fall in workload across the industry as a whole and the fact that things would have been worse but for a positive showing from publicly financed construction.

So are the surveyors right and we are poised to rebound from recession over the coming year?

Certainly it is encouraging to see optimism alive and kicking in the construction industry. But the seeming disparity between optimism and reality does throw up some issues, which relate to this survey and others of its nature such as that from the buyers' body CIPS.

It is not uncommon for questions on expectations of workload to overstate the likely future. (Although I suspect if you looked at the surveys of farmers or civil engineering contractors the reverse may be true. I recall in the 1980s the surveys of the then civils body FCEC consistently painting an over gloomy picture of the future.)

But on this point, let's look at the survey data from RICS in the period up to the start of the construction recession in early 2008. The graphs below are taken from the first quarter 2008 survey.

So what do they tell us?

It must be said that trying to discern sensible insight from examining the orders figures month by month is probably as fruitful as peering and prodding hourly at the scab on a grazed knee to see how it's healing. You more or less know how long it will take to heal - a few days - but that doesn't stop you looking.

Anyway the latest fare came out from the ONS today and it shows construction orders continuing on the predictable decline downward at a pretty predictable rate.

Persistent sightings of green shoots over the late spring and summer now look to have been little more than a mirage.

Much to the surprise of many analysts the UK economy appears to have remained in recession, with GDP output falling 0.4% in the three months of July, August and September.

These are however only preliminary estimates and will be revised. And in recent quarters revisions to the estimated construction output have caused sharp revisions.

But these figures, which show construction 13% down on a year ago, will dampen optimism as it seems the clamp of the recession is still tight around the UK economy.

I obviously recommend the conference because I have a vested interest in it and indeed the associated report, which I edit. But that is not the point.

While the presentation styles of the two politicans could not have been more different, there was one thread I noticed that appeared to tie the two presentations together. Given that this was pretty much a pre-election speaking opportunity both managed deftly to alienate large slices of the audience.

It would be rather tricky to summarise the document other than to say it provides a critical look at the state of the post-credit-crunch housing market.

The report is a synthesis of a meeting instigated by BSHF bringing together three dozen or so practitioners and academics from different housing-related disciplines, some with overseas experience, for three days of discussion and debate at St George's House in Windsor Castle in the summer.

Many of the points raised are familiar, but the report does pose plenty of questions worthy of consideration.

Certainly I would put it on the reading lists of Grant Shapps and John Healey, if they haven't already read it.

Indeed the three forecasts came closer together in this round of forecasting as Experian took a marginally dimmer view of 2009. This convergence hints at there being more certainty about the near term direction of construction than there was.

That said, as the graph shows, the views of the industry prospects remain some way apart, with Experian the most upbeat and Hewes shading assumptions on the downside.

But all are agreed that 2009 will see the worst of the recession and the pace of decline will slow markedly after that.

CLICK ON GRAPH TO ENLARGE

This is a marked rise in the prices from just a month ago and reflects the uplift in the Halifax index against which the futures prices are measured and the overall rise in other house price measures.

The Tradition Future HPI - a derivatives-based measure of future house prices - in September priced the Halifax non-seasonally adjusted average house at £174,745 in a year's time. This compares with the one-year-out price of £163,549 posted in August.

And the 5-year future price is put at £184,636, which represents solid growth, but still leaves average prices almost 9% down on the peak reached in 2007.