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   <channel>
      <title>Brickonomics</title>
      <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/</link>
      <description>Figuring out trends in housing, property and construction</description>
      <language>en</language>
      <copyright>Copyright 2008</copyright>
      <lastBuildDate>Fri, 16 May 2008 10:29:08 +0000</lastBuildDate>
      <generator>http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/</generator>
      <docs>http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rss</docs> 

      
      <item>
         <title>Gherkins and the City</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Have you noticed that there is a new measure in town - the Gherkin.</p>

<p>Here are two recent examples.</p>

<p>In the story about CEBR's estimate of <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSL0556400620071010">6,200 job losses </a>in the City one gherkin equates to just over 3,000 City jobs.</p>

<p>In the story about the estimate by Drivers Jonas that there will be a tidal wave of <a href="http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article3919496.ece">excess office space </a>in City one Gherkin equates to just shy of 1% of the total available office space in the City.</p>

<p>Who needs a pole, perch, rod or acre when you have the Gherkin. Let me know if you spot any other examples.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/05/gherkins-and-the-city.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/05/gherkins-and-the-city.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Gherkins</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">job losses</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">office space</category>
        
         <pubDate>Fri, 16 May 2008 10:29:08 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Is private house building heading for its worst ever recorded downturn?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The latest Government <a href="http://www.communities.gov.uk/corporate/799166">house building figures </a>appear to add weight to growing fears that unless there is a dramatic turnaround in fortunes the number of private homes built this year could fall by a quarter or more.</p>

<p>A fall of this scale would beat the <a href="http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/xls/141242.xls">1974 drop of 24%</a> in homes built for sale - the biggest post-War collapse in house building.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/05/is-private-house-building-head.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/05/is-private-house-building-head.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Council of Mortgage Lenders</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house building</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house prices</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">housing market</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">RICS</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">targets</category>
        
         <pubDate>Fri, 16 May 2008 08:45:34 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Will house building lead construction into recession?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Reading the news in the <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19ec4072-10d0-11dd-b8d6-0000779fd2ac.html">FT </a>that Merrill Lynch's Mark Hake, the longstanding construction industry analyst, has downgraded house builders was not good to hear.</p>

<p>But more worrying to the industry as a whole is that he seems to be suggesting industry volumes will drop by a quarter this year. That is huge. It is as large as the peak-to-trough fall in the housing recession of the early 1990s.</p>

<p>I haven't seen the detail of the note yet and imagine there must be some nuance in the definitions, but if what he appears to be suggesting turns out to be close to what actually happens on the ground, then a construction recession this year suddenly looks much more likely. Which leads me to believe I am missing something.</p>

<p>But it is worth looking at the figures...<br />
</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/will-house-building-lead-const.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/will-house-building-lead-const.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">construction output</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house building</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2008 09:22:30 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Small building firms squeezed as housing work shrinks</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Local builders appear to be taking a bashing as a combination of householders with less money in their pockets and a freezing housing market takes its toll. </p>

<p>Each quarter their trade body FMB conducts a <a href="http://www.fmb.org.uk/pdf_pub/sotsurvey/fmb108.pdf">state of trade survey</a> where it measures (among other things) the balance between those seeing workload rise and those seeing it fall. The figure for the first quarter of this year came in at -8 compared with +6 at the end of last year. </p>

<p>This sharp fall was perhaps predictable, as the fourth quarter 2007 survey had shown one of its worst ever figures for new enquires (a balance of -14). </p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/small-building-firms-squeezed.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/small-building-firms-squeezed.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">construction output</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">FMB</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">housing market</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">property transactions</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 22 Apr 2008 14:56:25 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Consensus grows on house price falls</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>Each week with each piece of data and each new forecast the balance of probability weighs increasingly heavily on the side of house prices falling rather than remaining flat this year.</p>

<p>Today we see released the spring <a href="http://www.ey.com/global/Content.nsf/UK/Economic_Outlook">Item Club </a>economic outlook for business and the latest <a href="http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/HousePriceIndex21stApril2008.pdf">Rightmove figures </a>on asking prices for housing. Both are substantially less confident about house price than at the start of the year. Rightmove has eased on its confident postition of a flat market this year and the Item Club has moved from its winter forecast position of a flat market to 5% falls this year and next.</p>

<p>But to comfort those who are unduly fearful, David Miles (one of the Morgan Stanley team forecasting a <a href="http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/slowing-lending-points-to-wors.html">20% real-term </a>fall in house prices) writing in the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/20/ccliam120.xml">Sunday Telegraph</a> suggests this is not as frightening a prospect for most of us as we may fear.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/consensus-grows-on-house-price.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/consensus-grows-on-house-price.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house prices</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Item Club</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Rightmove</category>
        
         <pubDate>Mon, 21 Apr 2008 09:19:19 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Commercial property demand plummets</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The latest <a href="http://www.rics.org/Practiceareas/Property/Commercial/Market/commercial+market+survey.htm">RICS survey </a>on commercial property demand makes grim reading. </p>

<p>Two figures are particularly worrying for the construction sector. Firstly: The balance of surveyors reporting demand down against those seeing demand rising was 30%, the worst figure for six years. Secondly: The balance between surveyors saying there was more available space against those reporting less was 27%, a rapid change from previous quarters when there was a fairly even balance.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/commercial-property-demand-plu.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/commercial-property-demand-plu.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">commercial building</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">commercial property</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">construction output</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">RICS</category>
        
         <pubDate>Fri, 18 Apr 2008 13:07:19 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Slowing lending points to worsening housing market</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>There was little joy in today's release of the <a href="http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/1588">Council of Mortgage Lenders</a> March figures for lending, as they reinforced data pointing to a weakening housing market. </p>

<p>Lending was up 5% on February, but the normal 20% March jump was absent with the figure 17% down on a year ago. Worse still is the likelihood that when the more detailed figures are released (splitting loans between house purchase, remortgage and other) they will show that lending for house purchases extremely muted.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/slowing-lending-points-to-wors.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/slowing-lending-points-to-wors.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Council of Mortgage Lenders</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house prices</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">housing market</category>
        
         <pubDate>Fri, 18 Apr 2008 11:08:59 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>As Poles depart - what then?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>At last some <a href="http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsuk0408.pdf">good statistical news </a>for the Government – unemployment down – employment up – an increase in the number of vacancies.</p>

<p>This boost will be particularly welcomed by both the Chancellor and Prime Minister, as the employment figures are so far proving to be their strongest card in their quest to convince the nation that the UK economy is on a firm footing.<br />
</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/as-poles-depart-what-then.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/as-poles-depart-what-then.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">employment</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">housing market</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">recruitment</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">unemployment</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">vacancies</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 16 Apr 2008 12:35:40 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Meanwhile... housing market gets gloomier over the pond</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>If the RICS housing market survey has failed to provide enough gloom, here's the story from across the Atlantic. Foreclosures (repossessions) in March up 57% on the same month a year ago, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure properties.</p>

<p><a href="http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=4450&accnt=64847">RealtyTrac</a> also suggests that things are so bad that more defaulting homeowners are simply walking away and leaving their properties to the bank. Memories, and bad ones, come to mind of the early 1990s in the UK.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/meanwhile-housing-market-gets.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/meanwhile-housing-market-gets.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house prices</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">housing market</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">RealtyTrac</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">repossessions</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">RICS</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">US</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 15 Apr 2008 10:42:43 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Worst housing market figures we&apos;ve recorded, says RICS</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The latest poll of estate agents by the surveyors body RICS produced the gloomiest set of figures on house price falls in the poll's 30 year history.</p>

<p>According to the latest monthly <a href="http://www.rics.org/Practiceareas/Property/Residential/Market/hms_march2008_r_150408.htm">RICS housing market survey</a>, the seasonally adjusted figure for the difference between the proportion of agents seeing house price rises and price falls was 78.5% in favour of those seeing a fall. That is much gloomier than February’s pretty gloomy figure of 64.1%.</p>

<p>So far so bad. But there are interpretations of these figures, fairly equally balanced, that might lead to a more pessimistic view on what the data means or a less pessimistic one, depending on what you want to focus on.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/worst-housing-market-figures-w.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/worst-housing-market-figures-w.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house prices</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">housing market</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">RICS</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 15 Apr 2008 09:29:18 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Base rate cut provides some relief as property-related orders slide</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The Bank of England's much expected decision to cut <a href="http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/news/2008/026.htm">interest rates </a>by 0.25% to 5% will provide a little short-term relief to worried managements within the construction and property sectors - although there will have been many crossed-fingered directors hoping for a 50 basis point cut.</p>

<p>And certainly the contracting fraternity must be starting to sense a cold chill heading its way. The latest data has all been gloomy and the <a href="http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/con0408.pdf">construction new orders </a>figures for February suggest that the flow of work in the pipeline for both the housing and commercial sectors is easing.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/base-rate-cut-provides-some-re.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/base-rate-cut-provides-some-re.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Bank of England</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">commercial building</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">construction orders</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house building</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">interest rates</category>
        
         <pubDate>Thu, 10 Apr 2008 12:13:05 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Will UK construction follow the US into recession?</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>The latest construction <a href="http://www.rics.org/NR/rdonlyres/8660A8BE-DBCA-4826-B83D-C56B3DC132A1/0/Constructionresearchnote0408.pdf">research note </a>from the surveyors' trade body RICS takes an interesting look at the current state of the US and UK construction sectors. The underlying question RICS asks is whether the UK industry will follow the US into a recession.</p>

<p>The headline grabbing data from the US are disturbing - housing starts down 54% from the 2005 average and a 34% drop in the value of private house building since February 2006. These are not figures that would be welcome here in the UK.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/will-uk-construction-follow-th.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/will-uk-construction-follow-th.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">commercial building</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">construction output</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">employment</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house building</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">recession</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">RICS</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 09 Apr 2008 16:27:00 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>Halifax house price figures show biggest drop since 1992 </title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>As I speculated late last month there was <a href="http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/03/a-bad-time-for-house-prices-to.html">a potentially nasty blow </a>in the pipeline for the sales teams of house builders and at estate agents when the <a href="http://www.hbosplc.com/economy/includes/08_04_08HousePriceIndexMar2008.doc">Halifax house price index </a>was published.</p>

<p>Well the figures have been published and show a monthly fall of 2.5%, the fastest since September 1992. This was worse than expected and puts the March 2008 seasonally adjusted average house price at £191,556 against £194,094 last March. A fall of 1.3%.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/halifax-figures-show-biggest-d.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/halifax-figures-show-biggest-d.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house prices</category>
        
         <pubDate>Tue, 08 Apr 2008 08:34:11 +0000</pubDate>
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      <item>
         <title>Buyers and sellers feel construction market shudder</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>If the <a href="http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/there-may-be-trouble-ahead.html">RICS construction survey</a> is a good indication of what the future may look like, then the monthly Purchasing Managers Index produced by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply <a href="http://www.cips.org/aboutcips/press/pmidata/">(CIPS)</a> tends to give a fair indication of the mood of the moment.</p>

<p>So when the March results released today showed the index turning sharply negative, it was a clear sign that the shakes felt in the financial markets last Autumn are vibrating in the construction industry right now. </p>

<p>The main Index broadly measures the balance between those purchasing managers who saw activity expand and those who saw it shrink over the previous month and the March figure of 47.2 (against a no change mark of 50) was the worst for almost a decade.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/buyers-and-sellers-feel-constr.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/buyers-and-sellers-feel-constr.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Chartered Institute of Purchasing &amp; Supply</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">commercial building</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">construction output</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">Construction Products Association</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house building</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 02 Apr 2008 15:52:58 +0000</pubDate>
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         <title>There may be trouble ahead</title>
         <description><![CDATA[<p>How worried should we be about the the findings by the surveyors body RICS in its latest <a href="http://www.rics.org/Newsroom/Pressreleases/PR022_Construction+Market+Survey_Q12008.htm">construction market survey</a> showing that the outlook for the industry is at its worst for a decade?</p>

<p>The short answer is seriously concerned. But that is only a partial answer. It certainly does not address the fact that what seems like only yesterday there were plenty of experts predicting all manner of problems, with the industry by now in near <a href="http://www.contractjournal.com/Articles/2006/05/24/51256/construction-faces-olympic-meltdown.html">meltdown</a> swamped with work and bereft of talent.</p>

<p>The most fanciful of those predictions now look as they did at the time – fanciful. But they do provide object lessons in the need to contain hyperbole. And there is a real danger that too much might be read into the RICS survey.</p>]]></description>
         <link>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/there-may-be-trouble-ahead.html</link>
         <guid>http://www.contractjournal.com/blogs/brickonomics/2008/04/there-may-be-trouble-ahead.html</guid>
        
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">construction output</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">house building</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">RICS</category>
        
          <category domain="http://www.sixapart.com/ns/types#tag">surveys</category>
        
         <pubDate>Wed, 02 Apr 2008 10:31:26 +0000</pubDate>
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