Brickonomics

Future traders think the tide has turned for house prices

The futures market is now pricing in strong growth in the housing market, with the Halifax index priced to rise by 6% over the coming 12 months and by 12% over 5 years. This is a marked rise in the...

Posted by Brian on October 8, 2009 9:11 AM

"House price falls are over" say futures traders

House price falls are over. That is the declaration made over the past two months by the futures market after two years of grim expectations. As recently as last December you could forward buy a notional average house three years...

Posted by Brian on September 14, 2009 8:53 AM

And the good news is...

The uber-bearish traders in house price futures appear to have softened their view on the depth of the slump in house prices quite markedly over the past month or so. At the turn of the year you could have bought...

Posted by Brian on June 11, 2009 2:17 PM

Traders see a brighter future for house prices - but still expect a further 17% drop

Follow the money they say. Well the money punted in the futures market suggests that average house prices still have at least 17% to fall. That puts the peak-to-trough drop at more than a third. But the good news for...

Posted by Brian on May 14, 2009 9:01 AM

House price futures on the rise

It has been a good spring so far for house builders in terms of sentiment if not in terms of actual sales. This is in sharp contrast to last year when market devastation created more ashen-faced residential developers than you...

Posted by Brian on April 9, 2009 10:21 AM

Halifax figures dampen hopes of spring bounce in house prices

The Nationwide figures published yesterday provided some cheer for those selling homes with the announcement of a 0.9% rise in its house price index for March. That hope has been rather squashed with the Halifax today releasing figures suggesting the...

Posted by Brian on April 3, 2009 2:27 PM

Economists mark 2009 for the biggest fall in house prices

If you bought a house in 2003 or afterwards there is a fair change that by 2013 it will be worth just the same or less than as you paid for it. That is the grimmest view taken by the...

Posted by Brian on February 2, 2009 8:48 AM

Half price houses by 2011, says the futures market

The futures market has marked house prices down further following the release of the latest Halifax figures and now predicts a fall of 46% in cash terms from peak to a trough in 2011. According to the Tradition Future HPI...

Posted by Brian on December 5, 2008 8:42 PM

Fancy a 40% discount on a house? Then just wait, says the futures market

The futures market has downgraded it expectations for house prices which now points to a fall in cash terms of more than 40% from the peak in August last year to the bottom of the market in 2011. According to...

Posted by Brian on November 7, 2008 4:48 PM

Future market expects a near 40% fall in house prices

The futures market has unsurprisingly taken an even darker view of house prices over the past month as the Tradition Future HPI latest figures show. The market now puts the peak to trough fall in the average house price at...

Posted by Brian on October 13, 2008 11:09 AM

Are we seeing the bottom of the housing market collapse? Probably not

The broad message coming out of the latest housing market survey from the surveyors' body RICS is that transactions may be stabilising but prices still are falling and have a way to fall yet. The interview with RICS chief economist...

Posted by Brian on August 12, 2008 10:40 AM

A 25% jump in house prices - is that scientific or finger licking bad

I can tell you the price of a house in 2020. I'll even let you into the secret of how I do it. What I do is lick my finger and stick it into the wind. Works every time, especially...

Posted by Brian on July 28, 2008 11:28 AM

Futures market puts house prices in cash terms down by a third by 2011

Punters in the residential derivatives game are putting a very bleak gloss on the direction of house prices. The Tradition Future HPI, which measures future prices against the Halifax (HBOS) non-seasonally adjusted average, puts a value of £137,233 on an...

Posted by Brian on July 11, 2008 8:06 PM

House price falls - but not 'alf

The Guardian yesterday reported that traders were pricing in a 50% drop in house prices over the next four years. Firstly and personally, I think prices may fall quite deeply. But I don't think they will drop by 50% in...

Posted by Brian on June 10, 2008 8:36 AM