Brickonomics

Forecasts suggest some rays of hope, but huge uncertainty remains

For those with an optimistic nature there was some good news to be seen in the latest set of industry forecasts with both the Construction Products Association and Hewes trimming how much they feel output in the industry will fall....

Posted by Brian on October 16, 2009 12:35 PM

Construction new orders: the Good the Bad and the Ugly

The latest new orders figures confirm the dire state of work in the construction pipeline. There was a drop of £6 billion in new work construction won in 2008 compared with 2007, which points to a rough road ahead. While...

Posted by Brian on February 12, 2009 10:41 AM

Experian cuts forecast for construction growth but predicts a boom in infrastructure

With the release of the heavily downgraded forecast from the Construction Products Association released this morning I was keen to see how the forecasters at Experian saw future workload in the industry this time around. The answer is that they...

Posted by Brian on January 12, 2009 5:17 PM

Forecast puts construction recession on par with 1990s - so expect 600,000 job losses

The rapid deterioration in confidence in the construction industry is amply illustrated by the latest prognostication of the Construction Products Association forecasters. The industry trade body has massively downgraded its expectations for construction output over the next six years, despite...

Posted by Brian on January 12, 2009 8:34 AM

Construction is sinking deeper into recession

The latest construction survey from the buyers' body CIPS finds the industry plunging to new depths with civils and commercial work rapidly following the path led by the house builders. The Purchasing Managers' Index for November reached a series low...

Posted by Brian on December 2, 2008 10:20 AM

Orders for new construction work evaporate

The September figures for new construction orders are truly shocking and extremely worrying. In the past I have tended to treat the orders figures with a bit of disrespect because they bounce around to the point where you can't make...

Posted by Brian on November 6, 2008 9:54 AM

Threat of more job cuts as credit crunch contagion spreads to commercial work

The recession in construction is looking increasingly desperate as the giant commercial sector appears to be heading for a nasty fall. The latest round of data will be a massive body blow to those who sought comfort in the notion...

Posted by Brian on November 4, 2008 10:26 AM

Bright spots in the gloom says Experian's latest construction forecast

I've just received an email from James Hastings, head of construction futures at Experian Business Strategies with the latest forecast update attached. And, not a surprise, it was gloomier than the summer forecast, which then saw the industry overall stumbling...

Posted by Brian on October 16, 2008 12:40 PM

Construction faces a worse recession than in the 1990s, says forecast

My good friend Martin Hewes passed me a copy of the latest forecast from Hewes & Associates. It's not good news, I'm afraid. His last forecast was pretty bleak, this is bleaker still. The headline figure of note is the...

Posted by Brian on October 9, 2008 3:11 PM

Forecasters see an £8 billion drop for construction work by 2010

So the latest stab by the Construction Products Association to make sense of the economic chaos suggests that construction output will fall 7% over the next three years. That is a loss in cash terms of about £8 billion in...

Posted by Brian on October 3, 2008 9:53 AM

Prospects for commercial property market dive in third quarter

The latest consensus forecast from the Investment Property Forum paints a bleak picture of prospects in the commercial sector. This will add to worries that the downward dip in the private commercial construction output figures is increasingly likely to turn...

Posted by Brian on September 5, 2008 1:47 PM

Construction output falls 0.5% - but the drop is probably worse than it looks

So the construction output figures post a fall of 0.5% in the second quarter and recession in construction now looks more of a forgone conclusion than a fear The first point to note is that was not just the private...

Posted by Brian on September 5, 2008 11:43 AM

A nasty hole has appeared in the new orders figures

One set of bad orders figures provides no real cause for concern. This data series can bounce around like a drunken kangaroo. It is a feature of the lumpiness of construction projects. But a second consecutive set of duff figures...

Posted by Brian on August 7, 2008 5:44 PM

RICS figures suggest commercial building market is heading for a beating

The release of some pretty nasty survey results on the commercial property market from the surveyors body RICS is far from the sort of fare one would have served up just before heading off on holiday, but there it is....

Posted by Brian on July 21, 2008 10:55 AM

Three years of construction recession forecast - is that possible?

My good friend Martin Hewes provided me with a sneak preview of his latest three-year forecast for construction output. It's not a bedtime read for the faint hearted, that's for sure. The Hewes & Associates numbers show a recession in...

Posted by Brian on July 11, 2008 8:38 AM

Prepare for massive jobs cuts, recession is upon us

Construction is heading for two years of recession says the Construction Products Association in its latest forecast. It puts output down 1.3% this year and 1.6% next year, before a sluggish recovery starts in 2010. The net result is that...

Posted by Brian on June 17, 2008 9:30 AM

Construction recession looks likely this year

On the face of it things look fairly steady in construction land. Thanks to a strong showing from publicly-funded work and a timely rise in private non-housing repair and maintenance, construction output remained steady in the first quarter of 2008,...

Posted by Brian on June 6, 2008 10:49 AM

Wave of job cuts spells more gloom for construction

The Government's confidence booster of "we'll be okay look at our strong labour market" is now starting to look rather shaky. The last pillar of hope for those keen to stop a collapse in house prices was strong employment. That...

Posted by Brian on June 4, 2008 10:45 AM

Development slowdown hits small civils firms

The latest survey from the civils trade body CECA into the performance and prospects of its members very much reflects the pressures on the building sector, where housing and commercial building work is being squeezed by the effects of the...

Posted by Brian on May 28, 2008 3:34 PM

Commercial property demand plummets

The latest RICS survey on commercial property demand makes grim reading. Two figures are particularly worrying for the construction sector. Firstly: The balance of surveyors reporting demand down against those seeing demand rising was 30%, the worst figure for six...

Posted by Brian on April 18, 2008 1:07 PM