Brickonomics

Forecasts suggest some rays of hope, but huge uncertainty remains

For those with an optimistic nature there was some good news to be seen in the latest set of industry forecasts with both the Construction Products Association and Hewes trimming how much they feel output in the industry will fall....

Posted by Brian on October 16, 2009 12:35 PM

Forecasters call the bottom of the house price slump

The increasing stretch of stable house prices is leading forecasters to call the bottom of the slump. The Nationwide late last month tentatively said it may be time to think the unthinkable that house prices may exit 2009 higher than...

Posted by Brian on August 8, 2009 4:45 PM

Another one for the file marked "Gloom": What do you mean you haven't got one yet?

Many thanks to Mel Budd of Leading Edge who sent me the consultancy's latest forecast. For simplicity's sake I have put the base figures for output in a graph with the other industry forecasts. What is striking is the growing...

Posted by Brian on July 30, 2009 11:21 AM

It's worse in construction than we thought say forecasters

The latest forecasts to emerge in the current round all see the future prospects for construction as far gloomier than was expected when the number crunchers examined the figures three months or so ago. Experian now expects a 12% decline...

Posted by Brian on July 13, 2009 4:53 PM

Recession may cost 800,000 construction jobs - that's one in three

The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association puts the annual peak to trough fall in construction at a shade above 20%. That probably translates to a 22% to 23% fall peak to trough on a quarterly basis, which compares...

Posted by Brian on July 6, 2009 11:16 AM

5 reasons why we might be facing the mother of all construction recessions

It's coming around to the construction forecasting season again and the industry prognosticators will be gathering to discuss the ups and downs of the industry. If I were you, I'd be bracing myself for some pretty savage revisions to what...

Posted by Brian on June 16, 2009 2:50 PM

Chancellor provides optimism in the gloom...and that's what's worrying

The direct measures aimed at construction-related activities and businesses in the 2009 Budget will be welcomed in some quarters, mainly among the house builders. Though I am not so sure I would go with the instant view from the surveyors'...

Posted by Brian on April 22, 2009 2:41 PM

Experian revises down its forecast for construction output

Industry forecasters at Experian followed their rivals and cut expectations of construction activity over the coming three years. The predicted decline in output in 2009 is now put at 7.8% followed by a slight drop of 1.7% in 2010 and...

Posted by Brian on April 9, 2009 3:02 PM

We're in the worst recession on record, says Construction Products Association

The spring round of forecasting has brought more gloom with the Construction Products Association taking an even dimmer view of industry prospects than in the winter. On the basis of the current data available the materials producers' body predicts a...

Posted by Brian on April 3, 2009 9:09 PM

Annual construction output forecast to fall £23.5 billion over next two years

The first of the spring forecasts for construction has winged its way into my inbox. It is the Hewes & Associates' forecast. Hewes expects on the basis of current data that levels of construction output will fall back to those...

Posted by Brian on April 3, 2009 5:16 PM

Contractors optimistic despite being trapped in mire of recession - says CIPS

The buyers' body CIPS remained muted about the prospects for construction despite a slight lift in the construction industry. The main construction index published by CIPS rose to 30.9 for March up from a series low of 27.8 in February....

Posted by Brian on April 2, 2009 11:38 AM

Construction output to fall to 1996 levels by 2011, says forecast

Remember the pleasure and pain of Euro '96, the rise and rise of the Spice Girls, This Life and Chris Evan's TFI Friday on TV, John Major as Prime Minister and Swampy digging in against the road builders? Well some...

Posted by Brian on January 22, 2009 1:32 PM

Will construction win or lose from collapsing hope in the UK economy?

We are heading into the worst peacetime economic slump since the 1930s, according to the latest forecast by the highly regarded ITEM Club. This marks a massive collapse in hope for the UK economy. Just three months ago the ITEM...

Posted by Brian on January 19, 2009 10:18 AM

Experian cuts forecast for construction growth but predicts a boom in infrastructure

With the release of the heavily downgraded forecast from the Construction Products Association released this morning I was keen to see how the forecasters at Experian saw future workload in the industry this time around. The answer is that they...

Posted by Brian on January 12, 2009 5:17 PM

Forecast puts construction recession on par with 1990s - so expect 600,000 job losses

The rapid deterioration in confidence in the construction industry is amply illustrated by the latest prognostication of the Construction Products Association forecasters. The industry trade body has massively downgraded its expectations for construction output over the next six years, despite...

Posted by Brian on January 12, 2009 8:34 AM

Why bigger contractors were slower to see the oncoming recession

Something that has been puzzling me for some while is why bigger contractors were so slow to accept their may be a recession coming. Up to about springtime in various conversations with fairly senior folk and in notes I'd read...

Posted by Brian on November 13, 2008 1:40 PM

IMF sees major decline in UK economic prospects

The prospects for the global economy are declining so fast that it has prompted the updating of an IMF forecast released just last month. The prospects for the UK now look decidedly gloomier to the IMF, which has revised its...

Posted by Brian on November 7, 2008 12:26 PM

House prices 16% down and falling faster

House prices fell 2.2% in October to the level they first reached more than three years ago, according to the latest Halifax figures. But how far can they fall?...

Posted by Brian on November 6, 2008 9:33 AM

Darling's bid might steer construction away from a nasty recession

Less than a fortnight ago I wondered whether we might see a return to Keynesian-style cash injections to buoy the real economy and more specifically construction. I recall other similar comments in the media. Now it seems from stories in...

Posted by Brian on October 19, 2008 5:08 PM

Construction faces a worse recession than in the 1990s, says forecast

My good friend Martin Hewes passed me a copy of the latest forecast from Hewes & Associates. It's not good news, I'm afraid. His last forecast was pretty bleak, this is bleaker still. The headline figure of note is the...

Posted by Brian on October 9, 2008 3:11 PM