Brickonomics

Are expectations of inflation too low?

Inflation is now on the way up. That was to be expected. As Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, keeps reminding us, we should expect inflation to be very volatile for some while. But, is it me or...

Posted by Brian on November 18, 2009 8:59 AM

The stagnant housing market: More a problem of first-time movers than first-time buyers

First-time buyers are increasingly becoming trapped in their first-time homes and unable to move on to homes that better suit their needs. That at least is the implication of some figures that caught my eye recently when I was looking...

Posted by Brian on November 10, 2009 8:41 PM

Is this deflation I see before me? Why prices are rising faster than the inflation rate

I am not sure about you, but I sometimes have to go to the back numbers to make sense of the statistics that get thrown at me. I have been for some months a bit curious as to why the...

Posted by Brian on September 15, 2009 11:44 AM

Recession deeper than we thought says Bank of England

The recession is proving to be deeper than the Bank of England expected when it previous produced an inflation report in May. That in part explains the extension of the quantitative easing programme that rather surprised many commentators. I have...

Posted by Brian on August 12, 2009 11:44 AM

Inflation down but far from out, despite cheaper cucumbers

For the first time in a year the annual rate of inflation measured on the CPI index dropped below 3%, dropping from 3.2% to 2.9%. The main contributor to the fall in inflation was lower energy costs, which contributed to...

Posted by Brian on April 21, 2009 11:11 AM

Nationwide springs pleasant surprise for house sellers and builders

The latest analysis by the Nationwide of house prices suggests that this spring has brought with it an unexpected 0.9% bounce in the price of houses. This will add some more cheer to those currently enjoying the blue skies, sunshine...

Posted by Brian on April 2, 2009 9:49 AM

Not a good time to be taking risks

What do the latest inflation figures tell us? Firstly, we are set for a heightening of the row between the quantitative easers and those leaning towards the views of the Austrian school on the matter of pumping money into a...

Posted by Brian on March 24, 2009 12:58 PM

Inflation, deflation, Japan and paradoxes

So consumer price inflation isn't falling as fast as many commentators had expected. Is that a surprise? Well not really. Ok there are lags in the systems. But with oil price falls, the cut in VAT and deep discounting the...

Posted by Brian on February 17, 2009 11:58 AM

The beast of inflation may be in retreat, but it can still bite

As if the confusion over the credit crunch's causes and effects is not enough, we now have the related confusion over inflation. What is a good level for inflation to fall to if deflation is a fear? We have just...

Posted by Brian on December 16, 2008 12:34 PM

Import figures highlight scale of construction slowdown

Data released today showing the level of building materials imports into the UK provides a further indication of the depth of the recession facing construction. Historically the material import figures provide a good gauge for the state of the UK...

Posted by Brian on December 3, 2008 11:16 AM

How bad will deflation be for UK construction?

The talk now is not of inflation but deflation. The latest inflation figures showed a fall for the first time in 15 months and the Prime Minister chided the opposition with the line that if this year was about inflation...

Posted by Brian on November 18, 2008 2:02 PM

Future market expects a near 40% fall in house prices

The futures market has unsurprisingly taken an even darker view of house prices over the past month as the Tradition Future HPI latest figures show. The market now puts the peak to trough fall in the average house price at...

Posted by Brian on October 13, 2008 11:09 AM

Materials imports surge despite slowdown

Despite a slowdown in workload, particularly in house building, the construction industry is spending more than ever on imported products and materials....

Posted by Brian on October 1, 2008 2:41 PM

It's time to get to know inflation again

For both consumers and construction firms inflation is becoming a real factor once again and maybe it is time to give much more consideration to how to deal with it. I was brought up with inflation. I recall being told...

Posted by Brian on August 13, 2008 9:42 AM

Probably the worst Halifax house price figures ever - unless you're a homebuyer

So house prices dropped a further 1.7% in July according to Halifax (HBOS). For those concerned about the depth of any correction in the housing market that will be worrying. Added to the other eight monthly falls there have been...

Posted by Brian on August 7, 2008 12:36 PM

Inflation tsunami flattens construction prospects

I recognise that I have said this time and again and probably will say it a few times more - but don't underplay the impact of rising inflation. I can already hear echoes of overexcited managment consultants suggesting to clients...

Posted by Brian on July 24, 2008 5:50 PM

House prices are falling twice as fast as in 1990 crash

I'll be honest I wasn't expecting the latest Halifax (HBOS) house price figures to be quite as dramatic as they were - showing a further 2% drop in June. Not that I am overly surprised, but on nothing more than...

Posted by Brian on July 10, 2008 11:33 AM

When even the good news is bad news you know it's time to take cover

A massive leap in retail sales. Excellent news surely. But no. Even if you are in the shopfitting business, this is does not make comfortable reading. On figures like these the markets are pricing in interest rate rises. This reaction...

Posted by Brian on June 19, 2008 10:43 AM

Prepare for massive jobs cuts, recession is upon us

Construction is heading for two years of recession says the Construction Products Association in its latest forecast. It puts output down 1.3% this year and 1.6% next year, before a sluggish recovery starts in 2010. The net result is that...

Posted by Brian on June 17, 2008 9:30 AM

House price falls - but not 'alf

The Guardian yesterday reported that traders were pricing in a 50% drop in house prices over the next four years. Firstly and personally, I think prices may fall quite deeply. But I don't think they will drop by 50% in...

Posted by Brian on June 10, 2008 8:36 AM